A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
